A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
