From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”