🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.