Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.